Thursday, November 25, 2004

HALF TRUTH: 2 Statements Which Deserve Another Quote

Here's a passage I've seen at least a couple of times in articles:
Election numbers still leave questions for some
By Larry Eichel
Inquirer Staff Writer
...While the investigation is not complete, Warren Mitofsky, whose company designed and helped conduct the poll, has suggested more Republicans than Democrats refused to be polled, skewing the numbers. Such refusals, the theory goes, might stem from distrust some Republicans feel toward the so-called mainstream media, whose logos the pollsters wore on Election Day. Exit polls have overstated the Democratic vote in other recent elections as well.

Freeman, who said the theory had "some plausibility," expects to post the revised version of his paper today on his Web site, www.appliedresearch.us/sf/.
In a publication called "mysterypollster.com", Dr. Freeman says a little bit more.
"Thinking coolly and scientifically: Is it delusional to question the Bush-voter-refusal hypothesis as conclusive without independent evidence? On the other hand, considering the scores of allegations, the history (especially in Florida), the lack of safeguards with electronic voting, the conflict-of-interest in election oversight, etc…, etc… (and now the Berkeley study) is it delusional to consider that, just possibly, even part of the discrepancy might be due to the possibility of miscount?"
In a letter to MSNBC's Keith Olbermann, Mitofsky compares the leaked exit poll data (not the data used by Dr. Freeman) as “the score at half time at a football game”.

Joseph Cannon of Cannonfire wrote a killer rebut to that statement:
"No, Mr. Mitowsky. They should be compared to the score at half time at fifty football games. Better analogy: Fifty tosses of a coin. Error should skew in both directions; if the coin keeps coming up heads, something is wrong with that coin."
Yeah, I can see why bloggers get their bad reputation..................not! Way to be on the ball with that one, Joseph!
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